No remaining regular-season fixtures were found for the current round.

The final three completed regular-season rounds in each expansion-era season are compared with that season's earlier rounds. Finals are excluded.

Favourite means the shorter stored pre-match head-to-head price. Matches without both prices are excluded, and sample coverage is shown so missing historical odds cannot be mistaken for a result.

Form favourite proxy where bookmaker prices are missing

This proxy selects the team higher on pre-match season win rate, using points difference per game only as a tie-break. Both teams must have played at least three games. It is a reproducible strength indicator, not a claim about the historical betting market.

Backs are jerseys 1-7 and forwards are jerseys 8-17, with recorded position used only when a jersey is unavailable. Double incidence is the share of matches containing at least one player with two or more tries.

These are historical associations, not guarantees. A pattern is more useful when it repeats by season and still has a meaningful pooled difference from earlier rounds.

Method note: 48 possible late-window matches are expected across 2023-2025 when all results are present – 15 in 2023, 15 in 2024 and 18 in 2025. The live table reports the actual imported count.

Official Match Centre play-by-play only. This Correlations view uses a two-occurrence threshold; the Odds Comparison trend remains stricter at three.

Uses every completed appearance in the imported 2018-2026 history for players with a matched date of birth. Exact-day and nearby-weekend appearances are separate, non-overlapping groups.

Birthday-on-game-day: 7 scored in 32 appearances where a player played on her actual birthday (across 30 players with enough other games to compare) – scoring rate 21.9% vs their own normal rate 19.6%.

Birthday-on-game-weekend (birthday within 2 days of the match, excluding exact-day games already counted above): 22 scored in 96 appearances (across 72 players) – scoring rate 22.9% vs their own normal rate 15.7%.

10-team era comparison

The 2023-onward column includes only appearances and comparison games from the 10-team era.

2023-onward birthday read: actual-birthday scoring was 3.8 percentage points versus the matched normal rate. Nearby-weekend scoring was 4.6 points versus normal.

Career milestone comparisons

Method note: each rate is compared against that same player’s own scoring rate in their other games, not the league average – a raw league-average comparison would be misleading here, since only the competition’s best finishers ever get near a tries milestone at all, and they naturally score more often regardless of any “milestone effect.”

This tests the exact sequence behind the Milestone Girls question: a try in career appearance 49, followed by the player’s scoring result in career appearance 50. “Game 49” means the previous recorded appearance, which is not necessarily seven days earlier.

History covered: all completed player appearances in the imported database from 2018-2026. This begins with the inaugural 2018 NRLW season – it is not limited to expansion seasons. The 50-game sample is naturally weighted toward recent seasons because players could only reach that milestone after accumulating enough appearances.

Back-test result: 3 of the 5 players who scored in game 49 did not score in game 50.

10-team era comparison

Career appearance numbers still include pre-2023 games. The 2023-onward sample requires both Game 49 and Game 50 to have occurred during the 10-team era.

2023-onward back-test result: 3 of the 5 players who scored in Game 49 did not score in Game 50.

Interpretation note: this is a historical conditional rate, not a rule that an individual player will or will not score. Pending players are listed for tracking but excluded from the completed game-50 rates.

This asks whether scoring is unusually concentrated in career appearance 50. It includes every player with completed appearances 49, 50 and 51, then compares Game 50 with the neighbouring games and that player group’s Games 40-48 baseline.

Exact-50 comparison: +7.9 pp versus the average of Games 49 and 51, and -2.6 pp versus Games 40-48.

Paired player check: Game 50 beat Game 49 for 6 players, while Game 49 beat Game 50 for 3. Game 50 beat Game 51 for 7, while Game 51 beat Game 50 for 4.

10-team era comparison

The 2023-onward cohort requires actual career Games 49, 50 and 51 to all occur during the 10-team era. Its Games 40-48 baseline also excludes pre-2023 appearances.

2023-onward exact-50 comparison: 7.9 percentage points versus Games 49 and 51, and -2.6 points versus Games 40-48.

Interpretation note: with 38 eligible players, this is descriptive evidence only. A higher Game-50 rate would be consistent with a milestone effect, but it cannot prove the milestone caused the try.

This tests the betting question directly: is career Game 50 a historically poor time to back a player as an anytime tryscorer? It does not assume the milestone causes the result.

10-team era comparison

The mature-era rates preserve true career milestones but include only qualifying appearances from 2023 onward.

2023-onward fade read: Game 50 had a 78.9% no-try rate – -7.9 percentage points above Games 49 and 51, and 2.6 points above Games 40-48.

Historical fade result: across every completed 50th appearance, 31 of 39 players did not score (79.5%). In the balanced cohort that also completed Games 49 and 51, Game 50 produced no try for 30 of 38 players (78.9%). That was -7.9 percentage points above Games 49 and 51 combined, and 2.6 points above Games 40-48.

Betting read: among these tested windows, Game 50 has the highest historical no-try rate and the lowest ATTS strike rate. That supports downgrading or avoiding a milestone player in ATTS markets. It does not establish a profitable no-try bet at every price – the sample is only 38 players and value still depends on the odds. The raw Game-50 rate implies a no-try break-even price of about 1.27 before bookmaker margin.

Completed appearances only. Raw next-game rates show what happened after the condition; the player-adjusted effect compares the result with that player’s own scoring rate known before the game (minimum five prior appearances). This stops established tryscorers from making every “hot” group look predictive simply because they are better finishers.

Model note: a negative adjusted effect is evidence of historical mean reversion, not proof that a particular scorer is “due to miss.” These are monitoring features and should be validated against locked prices before affecting stakes.

This updates game by game from completed Match Centre player stats. It tests the broad prop-scoring era split, then highlights the specific props and opposition profiles that may matter more than the league-wide rate.

Overall prop scoring

Read: The broad "props score more post-expansion" idea is not supported overall; use the specific player and opposition rows below instead.

Top prop scorers, 2023 onward

Teams conceding prop tries most often, 2023 onward

Method note: prop rows use appeared players whose Match Centre position is Prop. Opponent games count each completed team-match from 2023 onward, while conceded prop tries count tries scored by opposition props in those games.